Darwin beats malthus: evolutionary anthropology, human capital and the demographic transition

Declining mortality seems a natural explanation for the demographic transition. However, many economists have discarded improved infant survival as a causal trigger. Moreover, certain currents in Neo-Malthusian economics point to potentially beneficial side-effects of population shocks. Based on historical demography and evolutionary science, I challenge these views. The argument is that uncontrollable (extrinsic) mortality creates selective advantages for families with many cheap offspring, whereas stable environments favor child quality. Combining life-history-theory and a unified growth model, I demonstrate that declining mortality and medical progress facilitate the transition towards growth-promoting low-fertility-high-quality phenotypes. As it will turn out, this framework produces qualitatively and quantitatively closer predictions of the historical fertility decline than standard models of the Barro-Becker type. Moreover, evolutionary mechanisms provide a parsimonious explanation for diverse demographic transition patterns. Thus, evolved adaptations add a new and culture-free mechanism to older theories. Moreover, regarding sustainable growth, they suggest that natural selection eventually offsets the benefits from population shocks claimed by Malthusian theories.

Automated summary

This article explores the relationship between declining mortality and fertility decline, proposing a combination of life-history theory and unified growth model. The author challenges traditional economic explanations for demographic transitions and suggests that evolutionary mechanisms offer a new explanation. Evolutionary adaptations provide a culture-free mechanism to complement older theories and suggest that natural selection may eventually counter the benefits of population shocks claimed by Malthusian theories.