期刊
ECONOMIC RESEARCH-EKONOMSKA ISTRAZIVANJA
卷 35, 期 1, 页码 971-985出版社
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2021.1952088
关键词
The troika; uncertainty index; TVP-VAR model; monetary policy
类别
资金
- Research on the Construction and Application of Regional Financial Risk Index in China [18ZDA093]
This paper examines the impact of uncertain events on China's economic drivers, finding that during the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty had the greatest negative effect on consumption and investment. The negative impact on export was smaller in comparison. Additionally, expansionary monetary policies were found to have a relatively large impact on investment and export during the novel coronavirus epidemic.
Growth in China's economy is driven by the troika: consumption, investment and export. This paper examines the effect of uncertain events such as the global financial crisis in 2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic on the troika. Based on the construction of a new uncertainty index of China's economy, the relationship between uncertainty and growth in the troika is examined by using a TVP-VAR model. Results show that fluctuations in the uncertainty index during the COVID-19 epidemic had the greatest negative impact on consumption and investment at a magnitude of -0.27, notably greater than that during the period of the global financial crisis. The negative impact on export reached -0.73, smaller than that during the global financial crisis. Against a backdrop of the novel coronavirus epidemic, it is also found that expansionary monetary policies can have a relatively large impact on investment and export, reaching 1.75 and 1.57 respectively, while short-term impact on consumption is relatively weak, averaging at 0.51.
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