Face Masking Violations, Policing, and COVID-19 Death Rates: A Spatial Analysis in New York City ZIP Codes

The use of face masks during a pandemic and compliance with state and local mandates has been a divisive issue in the United States. We document variation in face masking violation rates involving police enforcement in New York City and examine the association between police-enforced face masking violations and COVID-19-related death rates. We assemble a Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code-level data set from the New York City Open Data, Department of Health, and the American Community Survey (2014-2018). We use maps to demonstrate the spatial patterning of police-enforced face masking violation rates and COVID-19-related death rates. Using a Bayesian spatial analysis approach to model police-enforced face masking violations, we find considerable variation in police-enforced face masking violation rates and COVID-19-related death rates across New York City and similarities in their spatial distribution, with higher rates for both measures found in Brooklyn and the Bronx. The positive association between police-enforced face masking violation rates and COVID-19-related death rates holds after including other covariates. The percentage of non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and households with limited English proficiency are positively associated with police-enforced face masking violations. This study extends the COVID-19 literature by reporting more aggressive enforcement of face masking rules in minority and limited-English-proficiency communities.

Automated summary

In New York City, there is significant variation in face mask violation rates and COVID-19-related death rates, with similar spatial distributions, higher rates found in Brooklyn and the Bronx. The positive association between police-enforced face mask violation rates and COVID-19-related death rates persists, and is linked to specific ethnicities and limited English proficiency in households. This study expands the COVID-19 literature by highlighting more aggressive enforcement of face mask rules in certain minority and limited English proficiency communities.