期刊
ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION
卷 159, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106285
关键词
Artificial intelligence; Big data analytics; Crash risk prediction; Naturalistic driving; Near crashes; Safety critical events
类别
资金
- National Science Foundation [CMMI-1635927, CMMI-1634992]
- Ohio Supercomputer Center [PMIU 0138, PMIU 0162]
- University of Cincinnati Education and Research Center Pilot Research Project Training Program
- Transportation Informatics Tier I University Transportation Center
This study utilized data from over 20 million miles of driving to address the prediction of driving risks, successfully predicting safety critical events 30 minutes in advance with a relative stability of predictive models and applicability to new drivers.
The emergence of sensor-based Internet of Things (IoT) monitoring technologies have paved the way for conducting large-scale naturalistic driving studies, where continuous kinematic driver-based data are generated, capturing crash/near-crash safety critical events (SCEs) and their precursors. However, it is unknown whether the SCEs risk can be predicted to inform driver decisions in the medium term (e.g., hours ahead) since the literature has focused on SCE predictions either for a given road segment or for automated breaking applications, i.e., immediately before the event. In this paper, we examine the SCE data generated from 20+ million miles driven by 496 commercial truck drivers to address three main questions. First, whether SCEs can be predicted using disparate driving-related data sources. Second, if so, what the relative importance of the different predictors examined is. Third, whether the prediction models can be generalized to new drivers and future time periods. We show that SCEs can be predicted 30 min in advance, using machine learning techniques and dependent variables capturing the driver's characteristics, weather conditions, and day/time categories, where an area under the curve (AUC) up to 76% can be achieved. Moreover, the predictive performance remains relatively stable when tested on new (i.e., not in the training set) drivers and a future two-month time period. Our results can inform dispatching and routing applications, and lead to the development of technological interventions to improve driver safety.
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