Future operation of hydropower in Europe under high renewable penetration and climate change

As large renewable capacities penetrate the European energy system and the climate faces significant alterations, the future operation of hydropower reservoirs might deviate from today. In this work, we first analyze the changes in hydropower operation required to balance a wind- and solar-dominated European energy system. Second, we apply runoff data obtained from combining five different global circulation models and two regional climate models to estimate future reservoir inflow at three CO2 emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). This enables us to address the climate model uncertainty reported in previous literature. Despite large interannual and intermodel variability, significant changes are measured in the climate model signal between today and future climate. Annual inflow decreases by 31% (20%) in Southern countries and increases by 21% (14%) in Northern countries for high (mid)-emission scenarios. Projections also show impacts on seasonal profiles and more frequent and pro-longed droughts in Mediterranean countries.

Automated summary

This study analyzes the changes in hydropower operation required to balance a wind- and solar-dominated European energy system, and estimates future reservoir inflow based on different climate models. Significant changes in inflow are projected between today and future climate, with a decrease in Southern countries and an increase in Northern countries. Projections also indicate impacts on seasonal profiles and prolonged droughts in Mediterranean countries.