期刊
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
卷 4, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00188-5
关键词
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资金
- European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program of the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant INADEC [800154]
- European Commission's Horizon 2020 projects PRIMAVERA [641727]
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant [H2020-MSCA-COFUND-2016754433, 748750]
- European Commission's Horizon 2020 project EUCP [776613]
- US National Science Foundation (NSF) under the Collaborative Research EaSM2 Grant [OCE-1243015]
- US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office under the Climate Variability and Predictability Program [NA13OAR4310138]
- US NSF [1852977]
- Met Office Hadley Center 522 Climate Program - BEIS
- Defra
- European Commission Horizon 2020 EUCP 523 project [776613]
- European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program [641727]
- NERC via NCAS
- ACSIS project [NE/N018001/1]
- NERC SMURPHS project [NE/N006054/1]
- European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program of the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant FESTIVAL [797236]
- Marie Curie Actions (MSCA) [800154, 797236, 748750] Funding Source: Marie Curie Actions (MSCA)
Analyzing sensitivity experiments across multiple models revealed a significant variation in simulating the impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on the tropical Pacific, mainly driven by differences in moist static energy injection. Correcting models for mean precipitation biases reduced inter-model uncertainty, allowing for a more precise quantification of the cooling effect on the equatorial Pacific following AMV warming.
Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) has been linked to the observed slowdown of global warming over 1998-2012 through its impact on the tropical Pacific. Given the global importance of tropical Pacific variability, better understanding this Atlantic-Pacific teleconnection is key for improving climate predictions, but the robustness and strength of this link are uncertain. Analyzing a multi-model set of sensitivity experiments, we find that models differ by a factor of 10 in simulating the amplitude of the Equatorial Pacific cooling response to observed AMV warming. The inter-model spread is mainly driven by different amounts of moist static energy injection from the tropical Atlantic surface into the upper troposphere. We reduce this inter-model uncertainty by analytically correcting models for their mean precipitation biases and we quantify that, following an observed 0.26 degrees C AMV warming, the equatorial Pacific cools by 0.11 degrees C with an inter-model standard deviation of 0.03 degrees C.
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