The effect of parameters and irradiance estimation techniques on PV potential quantification: The case of Mexico

The impact of some irradiance estimation techniques and model parameters in the assessment of solar potential has not yet been clarified, therefore, the case of Mexico is used in this work is to reduce such a gap. Firstly, a universe of 1629 weather stations and 108 models were used to study the effect of model-based and interpolation techniques on the estimation of the resource potential. Secondly, a centralized and two decentralized geographic potential scenarios were analyzed. Thirdly, the effect of parameters related to PV solar harvesting and production costs was evaluated. Our results revealed dramatic differences in the resource potential when heuristics models were used; differences up to 10% were found for the same location; in contrast, the evaluated interpolation techniques provided very close results with sensibility indexes (SI) below of 2.11%. Differences up to 15% were found in the average daily irradiance when the available area for PV installation is considered, which revealed the importance of the determination of suitable areas for harvesting. Changes up to %27 in the technical potential were found for different c Si-Poly modules. The parameters affecting most significantly the cost were the annuity factor (SI = 75.89%), the balance of the system (SI = 56.95%) and the PV module investment cost (39.28%). Our results provide reasonable results when compared with actual prices and provide evidence of the role of government policies to lower the costs.

Automated summary

This study used Mexico as a case study to investigate the impact of different models and interpolation techniques on solar potential assessment, as well as the importance of suitable areas for PV installation. The results showed significant differences between heuristic models and interpolation techniques, while the PV module investment cost, system balance, and annuity factor had the most significant impact on costs.