Impact of climate change on rainfall variability in the Blue Nile basin

Monthly rainfall data for Blue Nile Basin (BNB) were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Authority (1950-2018). Long-term trends in the BNB annual and monthly rainfall are investigated in this study. The challenges of the paper were to explore the impact of climate change on the study area using sound practical methods. The paper used the widely used statistical methods to find precisely the significance of the impact of climate change rainfall variability and distribution both spatially and temporally in the BNB. The statistical significance of the trend in the study is calculated by the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Data were analyzed using the coefficient of variation, anomaly index, and precipitation concentration index. The coefficient of variation is high in Kiremt rainfall which implies more inter-annual variability of Bega rainfall than Kiremt (Coefficient of Variation (CV): Bega> Belg> Kiremt season). Based on Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) value, the number of moderate concentration years (89.9%) has been increasing through time and the study area has encountered successive years of drought. The results showed that the annual, Bega, Belg, and Kiremt precipitation over the whole of BNB is significantly decreasing except Bega season with a magnitude of 36.38, 3.8, 7.8, and 24.7 mm per decade respectively. The rainfall in the study area is characterized by a high CV. Moreover, prolonged droughts have become common which adversely affects the agricultural system. It was also found that very low values of rainfall anomalies that correspond to severe droughts were associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. (C) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University.

Automated summary

The study investigated the long-term trends in annual and monthly rainfall in the Blue Nile Basin, and found a significant decrease in precipitation over the whole area except during the Bega season. The findings suggest potential adverse effects on the agricultural system due to the high variability in rainfall and prolonged periods of drought. Additionally, low rainfall anomalies associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation events were identified as contributing factors to severe droughts in the region.