The evolutionary genomics of species' responses to climate change

Climate change is a threat to biodiversity. One way that this threat manifests is through pronounced shifts in the geographical range of species over time. To predict these shifts, researchers have primarily used species distribution models. However, these models are based on assumptions of niche conservatism and do not consider evolutionary processes, potentially limiting their accuracy and value. To incorporate evolution into the prediction of species' responses to climate change, researchers have turned to landscape genomic data and examined information about local genetic adaptation using climate models. Although this is an important advancement, this approach currently does not include other evolutionary processes-such as gene flow, population dispersal and genomic load-that are critical for predicting the fate of species across the landscape. Here, we briefly review the current practices for the use of species distribution models and for incorporating local adaptation. We next discuss the rationale and theory for considering additional processes, reviewing how they can be incorporated into studies of species' responses to climate change. We summarize with a conceptual framework of how manifold layers of information can be combined to predict the potential response of specific populations to climate change. We illustrate all of the topics using an exemplar dataset and provide the source code as potential tutorials. This Perspective is intended to be a step towards a more comprehensive integration of population genomics with climate change science. This Perspective explores the ways in which evolutionary processes can be considered when using species distribution models to predict responses to climate change.

Automated summary

Climate change poses a threat to biodiversity, with researchers using species distribution models to predict shifts in geographical ranges over time. However, these models may be limited in accuracy and value due to assumptions of niche conservatism and lack of consideration for evolutionary processes. By incorporating evolution into predictions of species' responses to climate change, using landscape genomic data and considering additional evolutionary processes, researchers aim to improve the accuracy and comprehensiveness of their predictions.