Potential changes in the distributions of Near Eastern fire salamander (Salamandra infraimmaculata) in response to historical, recent and future climate change in the Near and Middle East: Implication for conservation and management

Climate change has a significant impact on the distribution of species over time. In response, species may shift, contract, extend or fragment their distributions to track preferred environmental conditions. This study aims to track the recent (1970-2000), Quaternary (Last Glacial Maximum (LGM): 21 Kya and the Mid-Holocene (MH): 6 Kya) and future (2070) range dynamics, as well as identifying putative climate refugia of the Near Eastern fire salamander, Salamandra infraimmaculata in the Near and Middle East. For this purpose, ensemble species distribution modelling (eSDM) using ten algorithms was applied to 119 occurrence records within CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM global climate models. According to the findings of this study, bioclimatic parameters, especially precipitation of wettest month (33.77%), annual precipitation (15.04%) and max temperature of warmest month (12.23%), have a stronger impact on S. infraimmaculata distribution than environmental variables referring to solar radiation, soil, topography and land cover as well as human impact. The modelled eSDM revealed a pattern of past range expansion and postglacial contraction. During the LGM, the range of species expanded to lower elevations, compared to MH and recent climate conditions. Based on future climate projections, habitat loss will be more apparent at the margins of the distribution range and low elevations, while habitat gain will be visible at higher elevations. The consensus model predicted that countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea (Syria, Lebanon, Palestine/Israel, southwestern Turkey), as well as a small portion of the central Zagros mountains in western Iran, northeastern Iraq and southeast to central Turkey may act as climate refugia for the S. infraimmaculata. In comparison to the historical and recent distribution, this result predicts that species ranges will fragment in the future. Therefore, global climate change should be considered a potential threat to this species and effective conservation plans should be implemented.

Automated summary

This study tracks the distribution dynamics of the Near Eastern fire salamander over time periods and predicts potential climate refugia. Bioclimatic parameters, especially precipitation, have a significant impact on the species' distribution. Future climate change may fragment the species' ranges, highlighting the need for conservation efforts.