A Five-MicroRNA Signature Predicts the Prognosis in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Background There is no effective prognostic signature that could predict the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods We constructed a prognostic signature based on five microRNAs using random forest and Least Absolute Shrinkage And Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm on the GSE32960 cohort (N = 213). We verified its prognostic value using three independent external validation cohorts (GSE36682, N = 62; GSE70970, N = 246; and TCGA-HNSC, N = 523). Through principal component analysis, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and C-index calculation, we confirmed the predictive accuracy of this prognostic signature. Results We calculated the risk score based on the LASSO algorithm and divided the patients into high- and low-risk groups according to the calculated optimal cutoff value. The patients in the high-risk group tended to have a worse prognosis outcome and chemotherapy response. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the 1-year overall survival rate of the five-microRNA signature had an area under the curve of more than 0.83. A functional annotation analysis of the five-microRNA signature showed that the patients in the high-risk group were usually accompanied by activation of DNA repair and MYC-target pathways, while the patients in the low-risk group had higher immune-related pathway signals. Conclusions We constructed a five-microRNA prognostic signature, which could accurately predict the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and constructed a nomogram that could conveniently predict the overall survival of patients.

Automated summary

A prognostic signature based on five microRNAs was constructed to accurately predict the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups based on risk scores calculated by the LASSO algorithm, with those in the high-risk group showing worse prognosis outcomes and chemotherapy responses. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated high accuracy in predicting 1-year overall survival rates for the five-microRNA signature.