期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 43, 期 22, 页码 11688-11696出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070735
关键词
-
资金
- NOAA/OAR under National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC)
- ONR [N000141310793]
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA [NA10OAR4320148, NA15OAR4320063]
This study assesses sea ice predictability in the pan-Arctic and U.S. Arctic regional (Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort) seas with a purpose of understanding regional differences from the pan-Arctic perspective and how predictability might change under changing climate. Lagged correlation is derived using existing output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System, and NOAA Coupled Forecast System Reanalysis models. While qualitatively similar, quantitative differences exist in Arctic ice area lagged correlation in models with or without data assimilation. On regional scales, modeled ice area lagged correlations are strongly location and season dependent. A robust feature in the CESM-LE is that the pan-Arctic melt-to-freeze season ice area memory intensifies, whereas the freeze-to-melt season memory weakens as climate warms, but there are across-region variations in the sea ice predictability changes with changing climate.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据