Increase in frequency of nuclear power outages due to changing climate

The impact of extreme weather events driven by climate change is increasingly disrupting energy assets and services. Using operational data of nuclear reactors, Ali Ahmad identifies how disruptions in nuclear power production have increased over the years with increasing temperature anomalies, and projects future loss of output. Climate-related changes have already affected operating conditions for different types of energy system, in particular power plants. With more than three decades of data on changing climate, we are now in a position to empirically assess the impact of climate change on power plant operations. Such empirical assessments can provide an additional measure of the resilience of power plants going forward. Here I analyse climate-linked outages in nuclear power plants over the past three decades. My assessment shows that the average frequency of climate-induced disruptions has dramatically increased from 0.2 outage per reactor-year in the 1990s to 1.5 in the past decade. Based on the projections for adopted climate scenarios, the average annual energy loss of the global nuclear fleet is estimated to range between 0.8% and 1.4% in the mid-term (2046-2065) and 1.4% and 2.4% in the long term (2081-2100).

Automated summary

The impact of climate change on energy assets and services, especially nuclear power production, is increasing. Analysis of operational data over the past three decades shows a significant increase in climate-induced disruptions, leading to average annual energy loss in the global nuclear fleet.