期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 43, 期 1, 页码 334-340出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067267
关键词
midlatitude cyclone; regional climate models; Australia; projections; severe weather
资金
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science [CE110001028]
- Linkage project [LP120200777]
- Australian Research Council Future Fellowship [FT110100576]
- WRF
- Australian Government
- Australian Research Council [LP120200777] Funding Source: Australian Research Council
The east coast of Australia is regularly influenced by midlatitude cyclones known as East Coast Lows. These form in a range of synoptic situations and are both a cause of severe weather and an important contributor to water security. This paper presents the first projections of future cyclone activity in this region using a regional climate model ensemble, with the use of a range of cyclone identification methods increasing the robustness of results. While there is considerable uncertainty in projections of cyclone frequency during the warm months, there is a robust agreement on a decreased frequency of cyclones during the winter months, when they are most common in the current climate. However, there is a potential increase in the frequency of cyclones with heavy rainfall and those closest to the coast and accordingly those with potential for severe flooding.
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