Are high-density districts more vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic?

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought questions about the desirability of compact urban development to the fore. There are some concerns that high density may be a risk factor that makes it challenging to contain the pandemic. This study aims to investigate the link between density and pandemic spread through a case study of Tehran that has been the epicenter of the pandemic in Iran. Based on data obtained from an online platform and analyzed using structural equation modeling, we found that density alone cannot be considered a risk factor for the spread of COVID-19. In fact, density alone did not explain the geographic distribution pattern of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths across the 22 municipal districts of Tehran. We, therefore, argue that efforts should be made to minimize concerns about living in dense urban environments. Indeed, residents of high-density districts can live safely when an outbreak occurs, provided they make some changes in lifestyle and follow public health instructions. Based on the findings, and considering other benefits of compact cities (e.g., climate change mitigation) planners and policy makers are encouraged to continue promoting compact urban forms. They can also use the results of this study in their efforts towards developing appropriate mechanisms and guidelines for effective management of future pandemics in cities.

Automated summary

The study suggests that density alone is not a risk factor for COVID-19 spread, as seen in the case of Tehran where density did not explain the distribution of cases. Efforts should be made to reduce concerns about living in dense urban environments and encourage lifestyle changes and adherence to public health guidelines. Planners and policymakers are encouraged to continue promoting compact urban forms and use the study's results in developing mechanisms and guidelines for managing future pandemics effectively.