4.6 Article

Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model

期刊

ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
卷 8, 期 7, 页码 -

出版社

ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210530

关键词

SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; vaccine; vaccine escape; heterogeneous population; policy

资金

  1. UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium [MR/V038613/1]

向作者/读者索取更多资源

As vaccination programs against the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic roll out, there is a concern that they may exert selection pressure on the virus, potentially leading to vaccine escape. Careful targeting of vaccines towards specific population groups could effectively reduce disease transmission while minimizing the risk of vaccine escape.
As a countermeasure to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been swift development and clinical trial assessment of candidate vaccines, with subsequent deployment as part of mass vaccination campaigns. However, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has demonstrated the ability to mutate and develop variants, which can modify epidemiological properties and potentially also the effectiveness of vaccines. The widespread deployment of highly effective vaccines may rapidly exert selection pressure on the SARS-CoV-2 virus directed towards mutations that escape the vaccine-induced immune response. This is particularly concerning while infection is widespread. By developing and analysing a mathematical model of two population groupings with differing vulnerability and contact rates, we explore the impact of the deployment of vaccines among the population on the reproduction ratio, cases, disease abundance and vaccine escape pressure. The results from this model illustrate two insights: (i) vaccination aimed at reducing prevalence could be more effective at reducing disease than directly vaccinating the vulnerable; (ii) the highest risk for vaccine escape can occur at intermediate levels of vaccination. This work demonstrates a key principle: the careful targeting of vaccines towards particular population groups could reduce disease as much as possible while limiting the risk of vaccine escape.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.6
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

暂无数据
暂无数据