期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 43, 期 13, 页码 7160-7167出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069453
关键词
Southern Annular Mode; Souther Hemisphere rainfall; CMIP5; RCP8; 5
资金
- Victorian Climate Initiative
- Australian Climate Change Science Program
- Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGCM) of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) [DE-FC02-97ER62402]
- National Research Foundation of Korea [22A20130012323] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
A robust positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is projected for the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, which results in rainfall decreases in the midlatitudes and increases in the high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We find that this SAM trend also increases rainfall over the SH subtropics in austral summer but not in winter, leading to a pronounced wintertime poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zone. These dynamically driven rainfall changes by the SAM appear to oppose the thermodynamically driven projected rainfall changes in the SH subtropics and midlatitudes, whereas the two components reinforce each other in the high latitudes. However, we show that most climate models fall short in capturing the observed SAM component driven by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and associated rainfall in the austral warm seasons, which limits our confidence in quantifying the contribution of the SAM to projected rainfall changes.
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