Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions

Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

Automated summary

The joint effects of dynamic sea-level rise, large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region were assessed. Using a model, it was found that only minor changes in hurricane-induced extreme water levels are predicted for Caribbean islands severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms, if the hurricane intensity remains the same. Global mean sea-level rise is projected to be the main future coastal flood risk factor.