Warming-Induced Northwestward Migration of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the Geological Past: Evidence From Climate Simulations and Geological Reconstructions

The cold and warm intervals during the Plio-Pleistocene provide an opportunity to assess the response of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) to different levels of global warming. In this study, the northern edge of the ASM, a sensitive indicator of the advance and retreat of the ASM rain belt, was analyzed using climate outputs from PMIP3 and PlioMIP1, for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, similar to 21,000 yr BP), the preindustrial, the mid-Holocene (similar to 6,000 yr BP), and the mid-Pliocene (similar to 3.3-3.0 Ma), among which the global temperature increased sequentially. The results show that the northern edge of the ASM migrated northwestward by similar to 200 km, similar to 50 km, and similar to 50 km with global warming from the LGM to preindustrial, from the preindustrial to mid-Holocene, and from the mid-Holocene to mid-Pliocene, respectively. These results are generally consistent with geological records. The simulations show that the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) intensified and expanded geographically, and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) migrated northward over the Indian Ocean and was shifted southward over the western Pacific. This led to a northwestward shift of the Asian monsoonal rain belt, and consequently to wetter conditions in India and northern China. During the mid-Pliocene, pronounced warming substantially intensified the WPSH, leading to the suppression of moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to southern China and the Indo-China Peninsula. Our results suggest that if the planet returns to a Pliocene warm world, precipitation will increase in northern China, while southern China and the Indo-China Peninsula will experience more frequent droughts.

Automated summary

This study used simulations to analyze the response of the Asian summer monsoon to global warming during different time periods. The results showed that with global warming, the Asian monsoonal rain belt moved northwestward, intensifying the western Pacific subtropical high and leading to wetter conditions in India and northern China. Conversely, the Indo-China Peninsula and southern China are likely to experience more frequent droughts in a warmer world reminiscent of the mid-Pliocene.