期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 43, 期 16, 页码 8703-8712出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070049
关键词
hydrate; hydrate dissociation; TOUGH plus hydrate; methane; methane release; clathrate
资金
- Swedish Research Council (VR)
- Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation
Continental margins host large quantities of methane stored partly as hydrates in sediments. Release of methane through hydrate dissociation is implicated as a possible feedback mechanism to climate change. Large-scale estimates of future warming-induced methane release are commonly based on a hydrate stability approach that omits dynamic processes. Here we use the multiphase flow model TOUGH+hydrate (T+H) to quantitatively investigate how dynamic processes affect dissociation rates and methane release. The simulations involve shallow, 20-100m thick hydrate deposits, forced by a bottom water temperature increase of 0.03 degrees Cyr(-1) over 100years. We show that on a centennial time scale, the hydrate stability approach can overestimate gas escape quantities by orders of magnitude. Our results indicate a time lag of>40years between the onset of warming and gas escape, meaning that recent climate warming may soon be manifested as widespread gas seepages along the world's continental margins.
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