One year of COVID-19 in Italy: are containment policies enough to shape the pandemic pattern?

A successful fight against COVID-19 greatly depends on citizens' adherence to the restrictive measures, which may not suffice alone. Making use of a containment index, data on sanctions, and Google's movement trends across Italian provinces, complemented by other sources, we investigate the extent to which compliance with the mobility limitations has affected the number of infections and deaths over time, for the period running from February 24, 2020 to February 23, 2021. We find proof of a deterrent effect on mobility given by the increase in sanction rate and positivity rate among the population. We also show how the pandemic dynamics have changed between the first and the second wave of the emergency. Lots of people could be spared by incorporating greater interventions and many more are at stake, despite the recent boost in vaccinations. Informing citizens about the effects and purposes of the restrictive measures has become increasingly important throughout the various phases of the pandemic.

Automated summary

This study examines the impact of mobility restrictions on the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths. By analyzing various data sources, including containment index, sanction rates, and Google's movement trends, the study finds that an increase in sanction rate and positivity rate serves as a deterrent to mobility. The study also highlights the changing dynamics of the pandemic between the first and second waves and emphasizes the need for greater interventions to save lives, despite the ongoing vaccination efforts.