Multiple change point estimation of trends in Covid-19 infections and deaths in India as compared with WHO regions

The present study aims at estimating the multiple change points for the time series data of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and trend estimation within the estimated multiple change points (MCP) in India as compared with WHO regions. The data were described using descriptive statistical measures, and for the estimation of change point's E-divisive procedure was employed. Further, the trend within the estimated change points was tested using Sen's slope and Mann Kendal tests. India, along with the African Region, American region, and South East Asia regions experienced a significant surge in the fresh cases up to the 5th Change point. Among the WHO regions, The American region was the worst hit by the pandemic in case of fresh cases and deaths. While the European region experienced an early negative trend of fresh cases during the 3rd and 4th change point, but later the situation reversed by the 5th (7th July 2020) and 6th (6th August 2020) change point. The trend of deaths in India and the SouthEast Asia Region was similar, and global deaths had a negative trend from the 4th (17th May 2020) Change point onwards. The change points were estimated with prefixed significance level alpha < 0.002. Infections and deaths were positively significant for India and SEARO region across change points. Infection was significant at every 30 days interval across other WHO regions, and any delay in the infections was due to the interventions. The European region is expected to have a second wave of positive infections during the 5th and 6th change points though the early two change points were negatively significant. The study highlights the efficacy of change point analysis in understanding the dynamics of covid-19 cases in India and across the world. It further helps to develop effective public health strategies. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

The present study aims to estimate the multiple change points and trends of COVID-19 cases and deaths in India and compare them with other WHO regions. The findings show significant surges in cases and deaths in India and Southeast Asia, with the worst impact seen in the American region. The European region initially experienced a negative trend but later reversed to positive growth. The study highlights the effectiveness of change point analysis in understanding the dynamics of COVID-19 cases and developing public health strategies.