Analyzing the Impact of Climate Factors on GNSS-Derived Displacements by Combining the Extended Helmert Transformation and XGboost Machine Learning Algorithm

A variety of climate factors influence the precision of the long-term Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) monitoring data. To precisely analyze the effect of different climate factors on long-term GNSS monitoring records, this study combines the extended seven-parameter Helmert transformation and a machine learning algorithm named Extreme Gradient boosting (XGboost) to establish a hybrid model. We established a local-scale reference frame called stable Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands reference frame of 2019 (PRVI19) using ten continuously operating long-term GNSS sites located in the rigid portion of the Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands (PRVI) microplate. The stability of PRVI19 is approximately 0.4 mm/year and 0.5 mm/year in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. The stable reference frame PRVI19 can avoid the risk of bias due to long-term plate motions when studying localized ground deformation. Furthermore, we applied the XGBoost algorithm to the postprocessed long-term GNSS records and daily climate data to train the model. We quantitatively evaluated the importance of various daily climate factors on the GNSS time series. The results show that wind is the most influential factor with a unit-less index of 0.013. Notably, we used the model with climate and GNSS records to predict the GNSS-derived displacements. The results show that the predicted displacements have a slightly lower root mean square error compared to the fitted results using spline method (prediction: 0.22 versus fitted: 0.31). It indicates that the proposed model considering the climate records has the appropriate predict results for long-term GNSS monitoring.

Automated summary

This study establishes a hybrid model combining climate factors and GNSS monitoring data to analyze the impact on long-term GNSS records. At a local scale, a stable reference frame PRVI19 was created to avoid bias from long-term plate motions. Results indicate wind as the most influential climate factor, with the model accurately predicting displacements using climate and GNSS records.