Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Changes Applying Cellular Automata in the South of Quito and the Machachi Valley, Province of Pichincha, Ecuador

Rapid urban growth has historically led to changes in land use patterns and the degradation of natural resources and the urban environment. Uncontrolled growth of urban areas in the city of Quito has continued to the present day since 1960s, aggravated by illegal or irregular new settlements. The main objective of this paper is to generate spatial predictions of these types of urban settlements and land use changes in 2023, 2028 and 2038, applying the Dinamica EGO cellular automata and multivariable software. The study area was the Machachi Valley between the south of the city of Quito and the rural localities of Aloag and Machachi. The results demonstrate the accuracy of the model and its applicability, thanks to the use of 15 social, physical and climate predictors and the validation process. The analysis of the land use changes throughout the study area shows that urban land use will undergo the greatest net increase. Growth in the south of Quito is predicted to increase by as much as 35% between 2018 and 2038 where new highly vulnerable urban settlements can appear. Native forests in the Andes and forest plantations are expected to decline in the study area due to their substitution by shrub vegetation or agriculture and livestock land use. The implementation of policies to control the land market and protect natural areas could help to mitigate the continuous deterioration of urban and forest areas.

Automated summary

Using the Dinamica EGO cellular automata and multivariable software, spatial predictions of urban settlements and land use changes in 2023, 2028 and 2038 were generated for the Machachi Valley near Quito. The results showed a significant net increase in urban land use, particularly in the south of Quito, with the potential appearance of new urban settlements. Additionally, a decline in native forests and forest plantations is expected due to their substitution by shrub vegetation or agriculture and livestock land use, highlighting the importance of policies to control the land market and protect natural areas.