A Performance Evaluation of Potential Intensity over the Tropical Cyclone Passage to South Korea Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Potential intensity (PI) is a metric for climate model evaluation of TC-related thermodynamic conditions. However, PI is utilized usually for assessing basin-wide TC-related thermodynamic conditions, and not for evaluating TC passage to a certain region. Here we evaluate model-simulated PI over the passage of TCs affecting South Korea (KOR PI) as well as the PI over the entire western North Pacific basin (WNP PI) using 25 CMIP5 and 27 CMIP6 models. In terms of pattern correlations and bias-removed root mean square errors, CMIP6 model performances for KOR PI are found to be noticeably improved over CMIP5 models in contrast to negligible improvement for WNP PI, although it is not in terms of normalized standard deviations. This implies that thermodynamic condition on the route of TCs affecting South Korea is likely better captured by CMIP6 models than CMIP5 models.

Automated summary

The study evaluates the model-simulated Potential Intensity (PI) of tropical cyclones affecting South Korea (KOR PI) and the entire western North Pacific basin (WNP PI) using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Results show that CMIP6 models exhibit significantly improved performance for KOR PI compared to CMIP5 models in terms of pattern correlations and bias-removed root mean square errors, indicating a better capture of thermodynamic conditions along the path of tropical cyclones affecting South Korea.