Hot extremes have become drier in the United States Southwest

Global humidity increases with warming, but the United States Southwest has shown summer decreases since 1950, with the largest declines on hot days attributed to decreased soil moisture, not atmospheric moisture transport. Projections are uncertain due to model spread in precipitation trends. The impacts of summer heat extremes are mediated by humidity. Increases in temperatures due to human-caused climate change are generally expected to increase specific humidity; however, it remains unclear how humidity extremes may change, especially in climatologically dry (low-humidity) regions. Here we show that specific humidity on dry days during summer (defined here as July-September) has decreased over the past seven decades in the United States Southwest, and that the greatest decreases co-occur with the hottest temperatures. Hot, dry summers have anomalously low evapotranspiration that is linked to low summer soil moisture. The recent decrease in summer soil moisture is explained by declines in June soil moisture, whereas the interannual variability is controlled by summer precipitation. Future projections of hot, dry days in the Southwest are uncertain due to the large spread in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) trends in soil moisture and precipitation through 2100.

Automated summary

Global humidity has been increasing due to warming, but the Southwest United States has experienced a decrease in summer humidity since 1950, particularly on hot days, linked to decreased soil moisture rather than atmospheric moisture transport. Uncertainty exists in projections due to variations in precipitation trends among models. The recent decrease in summer soil moisture in the region is explained by declines in June soil moisture, with future projections of hot, dry days uncertain due to differences in trends in soil moisture and precipitation.