Impact of meteorological drought on agriculture production at different scales in Punjab, Pakistan

The present study aimed to quantify the impacts of the meteorological drought on the production of maize crops, using district-level observed precipitation and yield data of 21 districts across Punjab, Pakistan from 2001 to 2020. The overall analysis showed that the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) effectively reflects the variations in drought characteristics in Punjab on spatiotemporal scales. It also resulted that in south Punjab, the maize yield was negatively affected by the meteorological drought, and yield was sensitive to short-term (1 and 3 months) drought during the critical growth period of the crop. The overall analysis depicted that the meteorological drought was associated with about 27% of overall yield variations. Moreover, all of the southern districts and few districts from Central Punjab were becoming increasingly sensitive to meteorological drought where significant spatial variations in drought effects and sensitivity exist over time. Conclusively, this study showed a spatiotemporal pattern of drought and its impact on maize yield, indicating that the districts where variability in maize production was significantly associated with drought recommend adopting the management strategies and mitigation measures.

Automated summary

The study quantitatively analyzed the impact of meteorological drought on maize crop production in Punjab, Pakistan, highlighting the sensitivity of yields in the southern region and the significant effect of short-term drought during critical growth periods. Around 27% of yield variations were attributed to meteorological drought, with districts showing increasing sensitivity over time. Recommendations for adopting management strategies and mitigation measures were made based on the spatial and temporal patterns of drought effects on maize production.