Lockdown Effect on COVID-19 Incidence and Death: Iran Experience

Objective: Countries are trying several policy options for decreasing the incidence and burden of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). One of these strategies is a lockdown, complete closure, to reduce the risk of distributing disease by means of social interactions. This study aimed to analyze the effect of a 3-week lockdown on the mortality and morbidity of COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: Official daily data on COVID-19 incidence and death reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) were extracted from September 1, 2020, to January 14, 2021. Data were analyzed using interrupted time series analysis by means of STATA 14 software. Results: Lockdown resulted in a significant reduction in the daily death from COVID-19 in the short-term (beta = -139; P < 0.01) and in the long-term (beta = -12; P < 0.01). Moreover, lockdown in the short-term insignificantly (beta = -21.58; P = 0.969), and in the long-term significantly (beta = -317.31; P < 0.01) reduced the COVID-19 daily incidence. Conclusions: The results showed that the lockdown has a significant effect on incidence and death numbers. Therefore, it could be a suitable short-term strategy for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. On the other hand, its negative effects on households and businesses should be considered.

Automated summary

This study analyzed the impact of a 3-week lockdown on the mortality and morbidity of COVID-19 in Iran. The results showed that the lockdown significantly reduced the daily deaths from COVID-19 in both the short-term and long-term, as well as significantly reducing the daily incidence in the long-term. Therefore, the lockdown could be an effective short-term strategy for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak.