Modelling the tempo and mode of lineage dispersal

Lineage dispersal is a basic macroevolutionary process shaping the distribution of biodiversity. Probabilistic approaches in biogeography, epidemiology, and macroecology often model dispersal as a background process to explain extant or infer past distributions. We propose framing questions around the mode, timing, rate, and direction of lineage dispersal itself, from a lineage- or geography-centric perspective. We review available methods for modelling lineage dispersal. Likelihood- and simulation-based approaches to modelling dispersal have made progress in accounting for the variation of lineage dispersal over space, time, and branches of a phylogeny and its interaction with diversification. Methodological improvements, guided by a focus on model adequacy, will lead to more realistic models that can answer fundamental questions about the tempo and mode of lineage dispersal.

Automated summary

Lineage dispersal is a fundamental macroevolutionary process that shapes the distribution of biodiversity. Current modeling methods have advanced in explaining the variation of lineage dispersal over space, time, and phylogenetic branches, aiding in answering fundamental questions about the tempo and mode of lineage dispersal. Methodological improvements guided by a focus on model adequacy will lead to more realistic models that can further answer key questions about lineage dispersal.