Predictive Value of Serum Thyroglobulin for Structural Recurrence Following Lobectomy for Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Background: The value of serum thyroglobulin/antithyroglobulin (Tg/antithyroglobulin antibody [ATg]) for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) surveillance after lobectomy was investigated. We aimed to examine the association between postlobectomy serum Tg/ATg and PTC structural recurrence and define applicable values for stratification. Methods: PTC patients who underwent lobectomy with adequate serum Tg/ATg data during 2000-2014 were selected. Predictive classifiers of recurrence using random forest were established combining different variables related to serum Tg (ATg-negative patients) or ATg (ATg-positive patients). Cutoff values were determined with receiver operating characteristic curves when applicable. Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression were performed to examine the predictive value of elevated Tg/ATg. Results: Of 1451 patients enrolled, 66 (6.3%) and 26 (6.5%) patients in the ATg-negative group (n = 1050) and ATg-positive group (n = 401) developed recurrence. The established classifier of serum Tg (n = 1050) showed a favorable association with recurrence (AUC = 0.81), while serum ATg did not (AUC = 0.72). The optimal cutoff values of the first Tg (FTg, measured 6-12 months after lobectomy) and last Tg (LTg, measured most recently) were 5.3 and 11.0 ng/mL, respectively. Elevated LTg patients had significantly higher recurrence rates than normal LTg patients (23.5% vs. 4.4%, p < 0.05). Patients with elevated FTg had significantly lower recurrence-free survival rates than patients with normal FTg in all ATg-negative patients, low-risk patients, and intermediate- to high-risk patients (according to the American Thyroid Association initial risk stratification) (n = 1050, 583, and 467, all p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated patients with elevated FTg had twice the recurrent risk compared with those with normal FTg (hazard ratio = 2.052). Conclusions: Postlobectomy serum Tg has favorable value for predicting recurrence in PTC patients, and reasonable thresholds could identify patients at higher risk for recurrence during follow-up.

Automated summary

The study found that postlobectomy serum thyroglobulin/antithyroglobulin values can be used to predict recurrence in papillary thyroid carcinoma, while also determining optimal cutoff values for first and last thyroglobulin measurements. Patients with elevated thyroglobulin levels have an increased risk of recurrence, and these thresholds can help identify high-risk patients during follow-up.