Operational solar forecasting for grid integration: Standards, challenges, and outlook

The interactions between solar forecasting strategies and grid codes have a profound impact on grid integration. In order to develop grid-integration standards, such as the forecast submission requirements or penalty schemes that are in the best interests of both the photovoltaic power plant owners and system operators, various challenges of operational solar forecasting need to be brought forward and addressed adequately. On this point, four very much overlooked technical aspects are identified in this work: (1) gauging the goodness of forecasts, (2) quantifying predictability, (3) forecast downscaling, and (4) hierarchical forecasting. The challenges associated with these aspects are discussed in concert with a case study based on the industry standards issued by regulatory bureaus of the National Energy Administration of the People's Republic of China.

Automated summary

This study identifies four technical aspects of solar forecasting that are often overlooked: gauging forecast quality, quantifying predictability, forecast downscaling, and hierarchical forecasting. The challenges associated with these aspects are discussed in conjunction with industry standards issued by the National Energy Administration of China.