A new model for ex-post quantification of the effects of local actions for climate change mitigation

The evaluation of the effects of local actions for climate change mitigation is essential for the assessment and design of effective policies, as well as for the adequate diffusion of good practices. However, existing methodologies based on the comparison of the total energy use and/or accountable greenhouse gas emissions of two different years do not lead to an isolated quantification of the effects of local policy actions. This happens because many causes of change in the local energy use and accountable emissions are not designed and/or controlled by the local authorities, namely economic dynamics, and national policies. This paper proposes a new model for disaggregating the total observed changes into a number of sources of change, thus enabling an estimated quantification of the effects originating from local policies alone. The applicability of the model is demonstrated by a concrete case study, the municipality of Porto in Portugal.

Automated summary

The evaluation and quantification of the effects of local actions on climate change mitigation is crucial. Existing methodologies have limitations in isolating the effects of local policy actions, but a new model proposed in this paper can disaggregate the observed changes and estimate the effects originating from local policies alone. The applicability of this model is demonstrated in a case study of Porto, Portugal.