期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
卷 288, 期 1956, 页码 -出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.0900
关键词
trade-offs; virulence; transmission; emerging zoonotic disease; evolution
资金
- UC Berkeley SURF-SMART program
- Philomathia Foundation Graduate Student Fellowship in the Environmental Sciences
- NSF [DEB 2011109, GRFP DGE 1752814]
- NERC [NE/V012347/1]
- [NIH/R01-GM122061-03]
The review synthesizes evolutionary theory on infectious diseases, discussing the selection on transmission rates and virulence of zoonotic pathogens. The authors propose a three T framework of trade-offs, transmission, and time scales to understand selection during the emergence of zoonotic diseases. Virulence and transmission rate may trade-off, with selection favoring transmission rate early in the epidemic, and the optimal virulence and transmission rates can shift with the time scale of the epidemic.
There is increasing interest in the role that evolution may play in current and future pandemics, but there is often also considerable confusion about the actual evolutionary predictions. This may be, in part, due to a historical separation of evolutionary and medical fields, but there is a large, somewhat nuanced body of evidence-supported theory on the evolution of infectious disease. In this review, we synthesize this evolutionary theory in order to provide a framework for clearer understanding of the key principles. Specifically, we discuss the selection acting on zoonotic pathogens' transmission rates and virulence at spillover and during emergence. We explain how the direction and strength of selection during epidemics of emerging zoonotic disease can be understood by a three Ts framework: trade-offs, transmission, and time scales. Virulence and transmission rate may trade-off, but transmission rate is likely to be favoured by selection early in emergence, particularly if maladapted zoonotic pathogens have 'no-cost' transmission rate improving mutations available to them. Additionally, the optimal virulence and transmission rates can shift with the time scale of the epidemic. Predicting pathogen evolution, therefore, depends on understanding both the trade-offs of transmission-improving mutations and the time scales of selection.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据