期刊
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
卷 376, 期 1829, 页码 -出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0270
关键词
COVID-19; contact tracing; SARS-CoV-2; adherence; case isolation; quarantine
类别
资金
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (NTD Modelling Consortium) [OPP1184344]
- European Union [101003688]
- Royal Society [RP/EA/180004]
- Wellcome Trust [215919/Z/19/Z]
- Sir Henry Wellcome Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust [215919/Z/19/Z]
- NIHR Applied Research Collaboration (ARC)-West
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) for Behavioural Science and Evaluation
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre (BRC)
- Wellcome Trust [215919/Z/19/Z] Funding Source: Wellcome Trust
Contact tracing is crucial for easing lockdown policies, but strict self-isolation measures may deter self-reporting, leading to potential risks of large outbreaks. Policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully to avoid reducing self-reporting rates.
Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
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