期刊
NEW JOURNAL OF PHYSICS
卷 23, 期 7, 页码 -出版社
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ac0c99
关键词
complex networks; metapopulations; human mobility; epidemic models
资金
- Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior, Brazil-CAPES [001]
- Spanish MINECO [PGC2018-094754-BC21]
- Generalitat de Catalunya [2017SGR-896, 2020PANDE00098]
- Universitat Rovira i Virgili [2019PFR-URVB2-41]
- Generalitat de Catalunya ICREA Academia
- James S McDonnell Foundation [220020325]
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico-CNPq [430768/2018-4, 311183/2019-0]
- Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais-FAPEMIG [APQ-02393-18]
- MINECO [FIS2015-71582-C2, FIS2017-87519-P]
- Departamento de Industria e Innovacion del Gobierno de Aragon y Fondo Social Europeo (FENOL group) [E-19]
- Fundacion Ibercaja
- Universidad de Zaragoza [224220]
- CAPES [88887.507046/2020-00]
The article discusses the impact of human mobility and contact patterns on the spread of infectious diseases, proposing a theoretical framework to address these aspects through Markovian equations. By validating simulations and analyzing epidemic thresholds, the dependence of specific demographic distributions, mobility structures, and contact pattern heterogeneities can be evaluated.
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements, epidemic models should be refined to incorporate both the heterogeneity of human contacts and the complexity of mobility patterns. Here, we propose a theoretical framework that allows accommodating these two aspects in the form of a set of Markovian equations. We validate these equations with extensive mechanistic simulations and derive analytically the epidemic threshold. The expression of this critical value allows us to evaluate its dependence on the specific demographic distribution, the structure of mobility flows, and the heterogeneity of contact patterns, thus shedding light on the microscopic mechanisms responsible for the epidemic detriment driven by recurrent mobility patterns reported in the literature.
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