Robustness of Phylogenetic Inference to Model Misspecification Caused by Pairwise Epistasis

Likelihood-based phylogenetic inference posits a probabilistic model of character state change along branches of a phylogenetic tree. These models typically assume statistical independence of sites in the sequence alignment. This is a restrictive assumption that facilitates computational tractability, but ignores how epistasis, the effect of genetic background on mutational effects, influences the evolution of functional sequences. We consider the effect of using a misspecified site-independent model on the accuracy of Bayesian phylogenetic inference in the setting of pairwise-site epistasis. Previous work has shown that as alignment length increases, tree reconstruction accuracy also increases. Here, we present a simulation study demonstrating that accuracy increases with alignment size even if the additional sites are epistatically coupled. We introduce an alignment-based test statistic that is a diagnostic for pairwise epistasis and can be used in posterior predictive checks.

Automated summary

Likelihood-based phylogenetic inference uses a probabilistic model to infer evolutionary relationships, and considering epistasis in sequence analysis can improve the accuracy, especially when taking into account the effect of pairwise interactions. Additionally, tree reconstruction accuracy increases with alignment size, even when additional sites are epistatically coupled.