期刊
MARINE STRUCTURES
卷 78, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.marstruc.2021.102940
关键词
Service life extension; Bayesian updating; Cost-benefit analysis; Ship management; Optimization
资金
- National Science Foundation (NSF) [CMMI-1537926]
- US Office of Naval Research (ONR) Award [N00014-08-1-0188, N00014-12-1-0023, N00014-16-1-2299]
- US Department of Transportation Region 3 University Transportation Center Award [CIAM-UTC-REG6]
Reliable and continuous operation of ships is crucial, but extending ship service life may come with higher failure risk and additional maintenance costs. Therefore, a cost-benefit evaluation is necessary to determine the optimal duration of service life extension and associated maintenance actions.
Reliable and continuous operation of ships is vitally important to the decision-makers. Driven by the rising cost of newbuilding ships, maintenance actions are needed on existing ships to ensure safe and enduring service beyond their initial design life. Extending ship service life can provide economic operating profit and promote sustainability. Meanwhile, ships during their extended service life may involve higher failure risk and additional maintenance expenditure. Therefore, a cost-benefit evaluation is imperative for determining the optimal duration of service life extension (SLE) and the associated maintenance actions. In this paper, a novel method for this purpose is proposed. Two cost-benefit indicators, benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and net present value (NPV) are used to optimize the duration of SLE. Using Bayesian updating, information on the remaining design life and the structural condition at the SLE decision is incorporated into the optimization process to better inform SLE decision-making. The proposed method is illustrated by a fatiguesensitive very large crude carrier (VLCC) at both structural component and structural system levels.
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