Active landslides in the Rogun Catchment, Tajikistan, and their river damming hazard potential

The region of Tajikistan where the Rogun Hydropower Project is currently under construction has experienced large and catastrophic slope failures in the past, often triggered by earthquakes. Co-seismic slope failures are thus common and pose a high hazard potential; however, to date, no specific analysis of slope activity in this area has been presented in international journals. Here, we present an inventory of active landslides identified through satellite imagery analysis and in particular by exploiting space-borne differential radar interferometry. Surface displacements provide the basis for the detection of active slope instabilities, which are then further classified by using geomorphological indicators visible in optical satellite imagery. Additionally, the proximity of active landslides to tectonic lineaments, as well as regional seismicity, is analysed to investigate potential relationships and to provide an integrated river damming hazard potential. The results show that approximately 31% of all detected landslides would have a high damming hazard potential upon catastrophic failure, highlighting the importance of such phenomena for efficient long-term land use planning and management of hydropower plants.

Automated summary

This study identifies active landslides through satellite imagery analysis and radar interferometry, classifies them using geomorphological indicators from optical satellite imagery, and analyzes their proximity to tectonic lineaments and regional seismicity to assess the integrated river damming hazard potential. The results suggest that 31% of detected landslides have a high damming hazard potential, emphasizing the importance of such phenomena for long-term land use planning and hydropower plant management.