期刊
JOURNAL OF THERMAL BIOLOGY
卷 104, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2021.103101
关键词
Temperature; COVID-19; Transmissibility; Quantile-on-quantile regression; India
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [72073010, 71761137001, 71521002]
- Beijing Social Science Foundation [17JDYJA009]
- Joint Development Program of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Education
This study aims to investigate the impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread in India, particularly in the five most affected states. The results show an asymmetric and heterogenous impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread, with significant positive effects in some states and a mixed trend in others.
The emergence of new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has become a significant public health issue worldwide. Some researchers have identified a positive link between temperature and COVID-19 cases. However, no detailed research has highlighted the impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread in India. This study aims to fill this research gap by investigating the impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread in the five most affected Indian states. Quantile-on-Quantile regression (QQR) approach is employed to examine in what manner the quantiles of temperature influence the quantiles of COVID-19 cases. Empirical results confirm an asymmetric and heterogenous impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread across lower and higher quantiles of both variables. The results indicate a significant positive impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread in the three Indian states (Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka), predominantly in both low and high quantiles. Whereas, the other two states (Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh) exhibit a mixed trend, as the lower quantiles in both states have a negative effect. However, this negative effect becomes weak at middle and higher quantiles. These research findings offer valuable policy recommendations.
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