Information Technology,x and Operations,{ Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is highly contagious and has caused significant medical/socioeconomic impacts. Other than vaccination, effective public health measures, including contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine, is critical for deterring viral transmission, preventing infection progression and resuming normal activities. Viral transmission is affected by many factors, but the viral load and vitality could be among the most important ones. Although in vitro studies have indicated that the amount of virus isolated from infected individuals affects the successful rate of virus isolation, whether the viral load carried at the individual level would determine the transmissibility was unknown. We examined whether the cycle threshold (Ct) value, a measurement of viral load by RT-PCR assay, could differentiate the spreaders from the non-spreaders in a population of college students. Our results indicate that while at the population level the Ct value is lower, suggesting a higher viral load, in the symptomatic spreaders than that in the asymptomatic non-spreaders, there is a significant overlap in the Ct values between the two groups. Thus, Ct value, or the viral load, at the individual level could not predict the transmissibility. Instead, a sensitive method to detect the presence of virus is needed to identify asymptomatic individuals who may carry a low viral load but can still be infectious. (J Mol Diagn 2021, 23: 1078-1084; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoldx.2021.05.012)

Automated summary

The viral load or cycle threshold (Ct value) cannot accurately predict individual-level viral transmissibility. A sensitive method to detect the presence of virus is needed to identify potential infectious asymptomatic individuals.