期刊
JOURNAL OF LOSS PREVENTION IN THE PROCESS INDUSTRIES
卷 71, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2021.104487
关键词
Monte Carlo method; Dynamic bayesian networks; Subsea wellhead connector; Stress-strength interference theory; Reliability
资金
- General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China: Research on Installation Attitude Control Law of Large Subsea Cluster Manifold Multibody Coupled System [52071336]
- National Hightech Ships from Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Expert Diagnosis System for Reliability Technology of Subsea Oil and Gas Production System [2018GXB01-07]
- National Key Research and Development Plan: The Scenario of The New Subsea Production System [2016YFC0303701]
- CNOOC [CCL2019RCPS0180RCN]
This paper presents a reliability analysis approach for subsea wellhead connector using Monte Carlo simulation method and dynamic Bayesian Networks to assess the failure probability during service life. By analyzing the driving ring component, a structure reliability of 96.26% is achieved with consideration of aging of material strength and identification of most influential factors. Proposed control measures effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.
The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.
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