Estimation of industrial emissions in a Latin American megacity under power matrix scenarios projected to the year 2050 implementing the LEAP model

The current global economic model of industrialization has historically searched for indefinite growth without considering environmental impacts. Dependence on fossil fuels has caused degradation of the global air quality and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions increase. Colombia and specifically Bogota is no exception to this problem, which is causing increasing concern about the negative impacts on its inhabitants. Due to the limitation of investigations contemplating the concentrations of pollutants produced by industries in the city, this study was developed in order to estimate the emissions of air pollutants from fixed sources in Bogota D.C., projected to the year 2050 using the LEAP software. Under three scenarios, we estimated the variation of emissions for different assumptions of industrial energy matrixes, giving proposals for emissions reduction in the city. The results of the study show that for a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, the emissions of PM10, NOx, SO2, CO2, CO and VOC's in 2050 would increase by 31.39%, 2.50%, 21.42%, 26.22%, 35.04% and 41.84% compared to 2014 in the different industrial sectors analysed. On the other hand, the scenarios proposed for the reduction of emissions have a different behavior. In the Carbon Reduction (RC) scenario, PM10 and SO2 emissions in 2050 would decrease by 23.10% and 27.89% respectively, although CO2, NOx, CO and VOC's would increase by 38.39%, 1.55%, 14.94% and 41.73%. Finally, the Mitigation scenario (MIT) showed a reduction in emissions of PM10, NOx, SO2, CO2, CO and VOC's by 62.83%, 59.46%, 79.20%, 49.15%, 47.94% and 45.96% during the studied period. Additionally, an economic analysis was included for the proposed scenarios to be implemented. This study allows to conclude that the industries of Bogota should begin to consider an increase in the fraction of electric energy in their productive activities to reduce emissions. This would stand as long as the power providers have implemented renewable technologies in their generation processes. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

This study estimated the emissions of air pollutants from fixed sources in Bogota, and proposed emission reduction measures under different scenarios. The results showed that implementing emission reduction measures can significantly decrease the levels of pollutants in the atmosphere by 2030.