The effect of uncertain political turnover on air quality: Evidence from China

We investigate the effect of frequency and predictability of turnover among Chinese city officials on air quality in their jurisdiction. Existing studies examining the relationship between the political cycle and pollution assume that local officials have perfect information on the turnover timing. We relax this crucial assumption by explicitly accounting for a turnover anticipation effect which we proxy via a nonparametric model. Based on city panel data, we find that there is a spike in air pollution in the year prior to the leadership turnover, but only if the turnover is anticipated by the incumbent. Beyond this cyclical anomaly, less frequent turnovers are generally conducive to lower air pollution. A key contri-bution of this study is the incorporation of the anticipation effect, which turns out to be critical for understanding the effect of turnover on air pollution. Our findings offer refinement to previous studies, indicating that when turnover is frequent and predictable, local leaders are more likely to focus on policies that encourage economic activity to signal their competence to upper-level authority, at the cost of damaging air quality. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

The study reveals that the frequency and predictability of turnover among Chinese city officials can affect air quality in their jurisdiction. Air pollution spikes in the year before leadership turnover if the turnover is anticipated, while less frequent turnovers generally lead to lower air pollution. The anticipation effect plays a critical role in understanding the impact of turnover on air quality.