Forecasting power consumption with an activation function combined grey model: A case study of China

Accurate medium- and long-term power consumption forecast is the premise and foundation of secure scheduling and layout planning of power system, which are conducive to the coordinated development of various power generation channels so that renewable energy generation can be improved. In view of this problem, this paper analyzes power consumption intensity in different regions in China and proposes a modified grey model with novel initial condition to enhance its forecast accuracy. Influence of initial condition in grey model is analyzed synthetically by several commonly used models, and the Inverse Square Root Unit (ISRU) function with adjustable parameters is defined as the novel initial condition to better reveal the characteristics of data growth. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is adopted to calculate the introduced coefficients. Using data available from National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2007 to 2014, consumption data of 31 provinces (municipalities) from 2015 to 2018 is forecasted to attest the efficiency and adaptability of ISRU-GM(1,1). Forecast results are compared with other improved prediction models as well. Potential power consumption ability in China in the next few years from provincial perspective is studied, which guides the layout planning of power system.

Automated summary

This paper proposes an improved grey model with optimized initial conditions to accurately forecast power consumption in different regions of China. By using the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm to calculate coefficients, the forecast results are efficient and adaptable, providing guidance for the layout planning of the power system.