Imagination and remembrance: what role should historical epidemiology play in a world bewitched by mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other epidemics?

Although every emerging infectious disease occurs in a unique context, the behaviour of previous pandemics offers an insight into the medium- and long-term outcomes of the current threat. Where an informative historical analogue exists, epidemiologists and policymakers should consider how the insights of the past can inform current forecasts and responses.

Automated summary

Although each emerging infectious disease is unique, looking at the behavior of previous pandemics can provide insight into the medium- and long-term outcomes of the current threat. By considering historical analogues, epidemiologists and policymakers can better forecast and respond to the current situation.