4.8 Article

Phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundances in mid-21st century lakes depend strongly on future land use and climate projections

期刊

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
卷 27, 期 24, 页码 6409-6422

出版社

WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15866

关键词

climate change; forecast; freshwater lakes; land use change; machine learning; phytoplankton; cyanobacteria

资金

  1. LimnoSCenES [AD 91/22-1]
  2. MANTEL-ITN [722518]
  3. US National Science Foundation [9318452, 9726877, 0235755, 0743192, 1255159]
  4. Natural Environment Research Council [NE/R016429/1]
  5. Cornell University
  6. INRAE
  7. SILA
  8. CISALB
  9. CIPEL
  10. U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Matching Funds Program
  11. City of Wichita, Kansas
  12. U.S. Geological Survey [G17AC00044]
  13. Centre de Synthese et d'Analyse sur la Biodiversite
  14. Vermont Water Resources and Lake Studies Center [G16AP00087]
  15. IGB long--term ecological research programme
  16. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation
  17. Direct For Biological Sciences
  18. Division Of Environmental Biology [9318452, 9726877] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
  19. Division Of Environmental Biology
  20. Direct For Biological Sciences [0235755] Funding Source: National Science Foundation

向作者/读者索取更多资源

Land use and climate change are expected to impact phytoplankton in lakes globally, but the effects vary significantly depending on the region and lake sensitivity. Urbanization is identified as a major driver of phytoplankton development in urban lakes, while climate plays a major role in lakes located in remote areas.
Land use and climate change are anticipated to affect phytoplankton of lakes worldwide. The effects will depend on the magnitude of projected land use and climate changes and lake sensitivity to these factors. We used random forests fit with long-term (1971-2016) phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundance time series, climate observations (1971-2016), and upstream catchment land use (global Clumondo models for the year 2000) data from 14 European and 15 North American lakes basins. We projected future phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundance in the 29 focal lake basins and 1567 lakes across focal regions based on three land use (sustainability, middle of the road, and regional rivalry) and two climate (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) scenarios to mid-21st century. On average, lakes are expected to have higher phytoplankton and cyanobacteria due to increases in both urban land use and temperature, and decreases in forest habitat. However, the relative importance of land use and climate effects varied substantially among regions and lakes. Accounting for land use and climate changes in a combined way based on extensive data allowed us to identify urbanization as the major driver of phytoplankton development in lakes located in urban areas, and climate as major driver in lakes located in remote areas where past and future land use changes were minimal. For approximately one-third of the studied lakes, both drivers were relatively important. The results of this large scale study suggest the best approaches for mitigating the effects of human activity on lake phytoplankton and cyanobacteria will depend strongly on lake sensitivity to long-term change and the magnitude of projected land use and climate changes at a given location. Our quantitative analyses suggest local management measures should focus on retaining nutrients in urban landscapes to prevent nutrient pollution from exacerbating ongoing changes to lake ecosystems from climate change.

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