Predicting Interannual Variability in Sea Surface Height Along the West Coast of Australia Using a Simple Ocean Model

Sea surface height (SSH) along the west coast of Australia is key to local climate and is strongly forced by remote surface wind variability related to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study provides a method to predict interannual variability in SSH along the west coast of Australia using a simple 1.5-layer dynamical ocean model forced by a statistical atmospheric model for ENSO-related winds. The model has realistic coastlines and is driven by reanalysis surface winds regressed onto an ENSO index. The model when run in hindcast mode to predict past variability can simulate tide gauge observations at Fremantle along the west coast of Australia up to 13 months in advance, which outperforms persistence. We conclude that this methodology can be useful as a baseline for gauging the performance of more sophisticated forecast models for predicting SSH variations along the west coast of Australia.

Automated summary

This study introduces a method to predict interannual variability in sea surface height along the west coast of Australia using a simple ocean model driven by statistical atmospheric models, which can simulate tide gauge observations up to 13 months in advance. This approach can serve as a baseline for evaluating the performance of more sophisticated forecast models for predicting variations in sea surface height in the region.