Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth's Heating Rate

Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a relatively small (presently similar to 0.3%) difference between global mean solar radiation absorbed and thermal infrared radiation emitted to space. EEI is set by natural and anthropogenic climate forcings and the climate system's response to those forcings. It is also influenced by internal variations within the climate system. Most of EEI warms the ocean; the remainder heats the land, melts ice, and warms the atmosphere. We show that independent satellite and in situ observations each yield statistically indistinguishable decadal increases in EEI from mid-2005 to mid-2019 of 0.50 +/- 0.47 W m(-2) decade(-1) (5%-95% confidence interval). This trend is primarily due to an increase in absorbed solar radiation associated with decreased reflection by clouds and sea-ice and a decrease in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) due to increases in trace gases and water vapor. These changes combined exceed a positive trend in OLR due to increasing global mean temperatures.

Automated summary

Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) is the difference between global mean solar radiation absorbed and thermal infrared radiation emitted to space, mainly warming the ocean and affecting land, ice, and the atmosphere. Over the past decade, EEI has shown an increasing trend primarily due to decreased reflection by clouds and sea ice, as well as increases in trace gases and water vapor leading to a decrease in outgoing longwave radiation.