Potential habitat and productivity loss of Populus deltoides industrial forest plantations due to global warming

The future habitat and productivity of industrial forest plantations (IFPs) are facing large uncertainties due to global warming. As an important IFP species, Populus deltoides is widely used for afforestation worldwide, serving as a key model species to assess the impact of climate change on potentially suitable area and productivity. Here we first compiled a global productivity dataset of P. deltoides, and then utilized ecological niche models to explore its potential habitat suitability with relations to both soil and climate variables, and for the first time, related it to potential productivity of this species at the global scale. The predicted habitat suitability showed a significant positive relationship with productivity (p < 0.05). We also observed critical abiotic factors, namely the annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and the topsoil gravel content, which regulate habitat suitability and stand productivity of P. deltoides. When combining with the two selected climate change scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), we further projected a potential loss of 2.54-3.32% in the global total productivity of P. deltoides from year 2041 to 2080. In addition to the global-scale predictions, our results also recommend some adaptive management plans: for those areas with projected increase in productivity, enhanced afforestation is recommended, while for those areas with projected decline in productivity, some positive management measures like enhanced irrigation frequency or thinning are recommended. Collectively, this study presents a novel approach for predicting forest productivity of P. deltoides in the context of global change, while providing a scientific basis for adaptive management strategies of this species to mitigate the impact of climate change.

Automated summary

This study utilized ecological niche models to explore the relationship between potential habitat suitability and productivity of Populus deltoides on a global scale. The results showed a significant positive correlation between habitat suitability and productivity, with key abiotic factors such as annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and topsoil gravel content influencing habitat suitability and stand productivity. Additionally, climate change scenarios projected a potential loss in global total productivity of P. deltoides, leading to recommendations for adaptive management strategies based on the predicted changes in productivity.