4.7 Article

Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for single large and huge hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

期刊

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF CANCER
卷 155, 期 -, 页码 85-96

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ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2021.07.009

关键词

Single large and huge hepatocellular carcinoma; Recurrence; Nomogram; Liver resection

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资金

  1. National Science and Technology Major Project of China [2018ZX10302205, 2018ZX10723204]
  2. National Natural Science Foundation of China [81874070, 81772589]
  3. Sun-Yat Sen University Clinical Research '5010 program' [2013009]

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In this study, novel nomograms were developed to predict postoperative recurrence and survival of patients with single large and huge hepatocellular carcinoma. The nomograms showed high accuracy and reliability in predicting outcomes for these patients, as confirmed by validation in internal and external cohorts.
Aim: The prediction model of postoperative survival for single large and huge hepatocellular carcinoma (SLH-HCC, diameter > 5.0 cm) without portal vein tumour thrombus has not been well established. This study aimed to develop novel nomograms to predict postoperative recurrence and survival of these patients. Methods: Data from 2469 patients with SLH-HCC who underwent curative resection from January 2005 to December 2015 in China were retrospectively collected. Specifically, nomograms of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) using data from a training cohort were developed with the Cox regression model (n = 1012). The modes were verified in an internal validation cohort (n = 338) and an external cohort comprising four tertiary institutions (n = 1119). Results: The nomograms of RFS and OS based on tumour clinicopathologic features (diameter, differentiation, microvascular invasion, a-fetoprotein), operative factors (preoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolisation therapy, scope of liver resection and intraoperative blood transfusion), underlying liver function (albumin-bilirubin grade) and systemic inflammatory or immune status (neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio) achieved high C-indexes of 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-0.91) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.79-0.93) in the training cohort, respectively, which were significantly higher than those of the five conventional HCC staging systems (0.62-0.73 for RFS, 0.63-0.75 for OS). The nomograms were validated in the internal cohort (0.83 for RFS, 0.84 for OS) and external cohort (0.87 for RFS, 0.88 for OS) and had well-fitted calibration curves. Our nomograms accurately stratified patients with SLH-HCC into low-, intermediate-and high-risk groups of postsurgical recurrence and mortality. Conclusions: The two nomograms achieved optimal prediction for postsurgical recurrence and OS for patients with SLH-HCC after curative resection. (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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